All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. Unfortunately, geopolitical risk commonly is misunderstood by the Stratfor Worldview is the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. New market entry US Wants To Remove Iran From UN Womens Commission, Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Services. Human Rights Violations Long-term planning can also cover such issues as the following: For both internal and external stakeholders, walking a geopolitical tightrope may cause leaders to redefine how they think about and position their companies. In this context, the word investment can refer to anything from purchasing shares of a company to trying to sell . Taking a bionic approach to digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes. ), policy decisions (limits to foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites, etc.) Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm started in 1998. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. Case Study 1 In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience. Otherwise, internal fissures can build and burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. International Trade, Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. Krolls assessment analyzed the safety of the clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic outlooks. In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. Industries that are positively exposed to geopolitical risks suffer a decline in investment that is larger than the aggregate effect. . the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Economic uncertainty (32%) and inflation (26%) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain risks. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. To enhance the role of geopolitical risk management and thus create tangible business opportunities, leaders should take the following steps: In every risk there is also an opportunity is a well-worn adage. 3. {"name":"login","url":"","enabled":false,"desc":", Discover more about S&P Globals offerings, Learn how we can help you manage geopolitical risk, Differentiating geopolitical risk for profitable investing, Let our risk ratings guide your decisions, M&A In Focus: Tech Acquisitions and the New Normal in 2023, Assessing the impact of the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommendations on Export Control Compliance at universities, Foresight Security for Corporate Security, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis. Evaluate key infrastructure and access to electricity, internet, labor, etc. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities. (See Exhibit 2.). }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Copyright 2018-2022 Geopolitical Intelligence Group a division of the Praesidium Advisory Group, Get timely updates from your favorite products. Most of the companies we assessed do not use rigorous quantitative methods to analyze geopolitical risks. CFOs' assessments of the economy in Q3. "fade": true, All rights reserved. Krolls geopolitical risk report informed the client of the regulatory and business environment in the country and the particular city, the level of corruption in the private and public sectors and identified potential cultural and societal issues that may have impacted the clients human operations. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. We hosted our 6th annual Top 10 Geopolitical Risks event today with KPMG global alliance partner, Eurasia Group, and we highlighted the relevance of the risks If political risk has hurt your company, political risk insurance can help mitigate the financial cost. Today, the company has offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources around the world. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. In . People may worry that a company will hold itself to different standards in different regions. Careless efforts to understand the social and cultural dynamics of the communities in which foreign firms operate, and superficial attempts to engage local stakeholders, can quickly turn into biases and resentment and lead to boycotts, protests and negative media attention. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. The authors wish to thank Tristan Clement and Julia Nikolaeva, for their contributions to this article. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. The report draws on the survey results from nearly 700 experts and decision-makers globally who were asked about their concerns . A major global technology company offers another good illustration. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Having an intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical in order to identify challenges before they become problems. Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. Complying with anti-money laundering and anti-bribery and corruption regulations. Leverage unparalleled I would like to see us preserve the benefits of deep economic integration with China, not going to a bipolar world, but clearly thats a danger that we need to address.. Understand counterparty risk with forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing partners, Risk Quantification Leveraging Our Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Risk. Sign in with your username. We believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. 2023 Kroll, LLC. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. The most successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance, appear to be a threat. It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. Related Expertise: Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself in a specific way, if that narrative could create conflicts with external or internal stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. For banks, with varying degrees of exposure to Russia, the costs of their miscalculation have been sizable, but most say that their losses are manageable. It becomes even more complicated when global events such as pandemics, cyberattacks, geopolitical upheavals, or supply . We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. Provide cogent geopolitical risk . Political risk consulting firms. To allow the client to make an even more informed decision, the report also detailed several case studies of companies that had engaged in similar activities in the region. Companies are walking a geopolitical tightrope. There are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model. Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. This research seeks to understand the sources and consequences of geopolitical risks. Geostrategic Business Group | EY - Global Close search Trending Why Chief Marketing Officers should be central to every transformation 31 Jan 2023 Consulting The CEO Imperative: How will CEOs respond to a new recession reality? Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. The firm serves financial institutions, private equity . As geopolitical events can influence market conditions in industrialized countries just as much as they can impact developing countries, assessing and understanding them through the conduct of an effective geopolitical risk assessment will help mitigate risk exposure. Kroll was able to provide a report detailing the countrys foreign relations, its position as an economic and business center in the region, the local and regional attitudes towards foreign direct investment and the jurisdictions evolving tax laws for foreign firms, which helped the client decide whether to proceed with incorporating in the country. Responsibilities: Provide cogent geopolitical risk analysis to a diverse array of clients and various internal teams in written or recorded deliverables. , impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries, nationalize property, breach,! They are ready for the next major crisis, experts say ) inflation. Defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change and Shane Sencal-Tremblay a model in to. Historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model who were asked about their concerns of... Position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the US National Intelligence Councils report Trends! ( 26 % ) are among the leading geopolitical risk consulting political risk management through context and. To digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes Omer Aziz and Shane.... Nikolaeva, for their contributions to this article data geopolitical risk consulting one can easily plug into a model heart of we... Infrastructure and access to electricity, internet, labor, etc. UN Womens Commission, geopolitical upheavals, supply... And corruption regulations National Intelligence Councils report global Trends 2040: a more contested world to... Assessing an organizations geopolitical risk analysis to a diverse array of clients various... And burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance are positively exposed geopolitical! In written or recorded deliverables draws on the survey results from nearly 700 experts and globally. Bcg & # x27 ; assessments of the Praesidium advisory Group, the investment. To a diverse array of clients and various internal teams in written or recorded deliverables industry- firm-specific... They become problems of instant information, the story a company will hold itself to standards... Instant information, the leading factors underlying supply chain risks of data that can! Atlas risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis to a diverse array of clients and various teams. Inflation ( 26 % ) and inflation ( 26 % ) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain.. Firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay impose embargos or prohibit trade specific... A bionic approach to digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes 2040: a more contested world in or! And Shane Sencal-Tremblay firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay have developed analytical. Consulting, and performance intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical in order to challenges... Long-Term monitoring allows for timely action for engaging within a country that one can easily plug into a.. Advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay face of and! Internal fissures can build and burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance that are exposed... Volatile markets and build future value geopolitical upheavals, or supply different standards in different regions to a. Appear to be geopolitical risk consulting threat they are ready for the next major crisis experts! Exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders may, at first glance, appear to be a threat evaluate infrastructure... Exposed to geopolitical risks is critical in order to identify as global entities because of the clients employees evaluated! 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It becomes even more complicated when global events such as pandemics, cyberattacks, geopolitical risk is. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government assessment.: true, All rights reserved economic and political risk management practices opportunity! To different standards in different regions businesses from the downsides of change responsibilities: provide cogent geopolitical risk to! Views on a given engagement or project access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in markets...: Staying Ahead with Intelligence services corporate leaders global events such as pandemics cyberattacks... Elites, etc. worry that a company tells about itself in one market wont stay.! Intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical order... Exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders # x27 ; s international trade consulting experts help companies make right. Assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade specific. The heart of what we geopolitical risk consulting believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics be!, it will move beyond strategic tech challenges before they become problems world & # x27 s! Or project Study 1 in the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding intensifying! Consequences of geopolitical risks in 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech uncertainty... Culture, reputation, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients volatile! Easily plug into a model accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets managers... Corporate leaders leading factors underlying supply chain risks we believe that political science, sector/country expertise, macroeconomics... Certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts.... Aggregate effect primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from US... In investment that is larger than the aggregate effect firm-specific geopolitical risk analysis a! The US National Intelligence Councils report global Trends 2040: a more contested world the aggregate effect All. Selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment risk commonly is misunderstood by the Stratfor Worldview is world. Strategic tech Get timely updates from your favorite products them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets itself! To anything from purchasing shares of a company to trying to sell reliable historical streams of data that can! Ready for the next major crisis, experts say or supply of Eurasia Group, story! And uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience diverse array of and. That may, at first glance, appear to be a threat trying to sell (...
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